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In less than two years, French President Emmanuel Macron has gone from would-be peacemaker with Vladimir Putin to one of Europe’s most hawkish voices on Russia and the generational threat it poses to the region’s security.
He broke a taboo on Monday in refusing to rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine, surprising EU leaders and Moscow alike. Other European capitals rushed to disavow Macron’s suggestion. But this was not another foreign policy gaffe. It was a purposeful response to repeated questions from reporters.
“We will do everything necessary to make sure Russia does not win this war,” he said after hosting a conference of Ukraine supporters in Paris. He admitted that there was “no consensus” on sending troops, but that it was discussed among allies and argued that the idea should not be taken off the table.
Raising what seemed an implausible scenario, Macron was attempting to recreate a moment like Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” pledge to save the euro during the financial crisis. Europe had done too little, too late to help Ukraine, Macron said. It needed to break out of its self-imposed constraints — and change Moscow’s assumptions.
Macron has come to see Putin’s imperialist ambitions as an existential threat to Europe, not just to Ukraine.
Moscow is engaging in “hybrid warfare” against France specifically with cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns online, as well as intimidation tactics in the air and at sea, say officials in Paris. Macron’s defence minister recently said Russia was “testing new thresholds in terms of aggressiveness” and had threatened to shoot down French planes over the Black Sea.
It is a far cry from February 2022 when Macron held last-ditch negotiations with Putin over a comically large table in the Kremlin to try to head off the full-scale invasion. Even after Russia’s bloody assault, the French leader’s insisted that Russia should not “be humiliated” and would need security “guarantees” from the west in return for peace.
His dovish positions sapped France’s credibility with eastern European allies and weakened his voice just at the moment when events vindicated his long-standing argument that the EU needed to increase defence investment and establish its own “strategic autonomy”.
Russia’s unrelenting aggression against Ukraine has transformed Macron’s thinking: he came round to the idea of Ukraine joining Nato one day, and issued a rare mea culpa to eastern European countries that they were right about Putin’s threat.
Concerns are mounting in Europe that Ukraine is flagging on the battlefield as ammunition stocks run low. Further US military support is deadlocked in Congress. US commitment to the collective defence of Europe could weaken or even end if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
“Macron believes that we are approaching a moment of truth for Europe and its very ability to act as a true geopolitical power is at stake,” said Thomas Gomart, the director of Ifri think-tank. A Trump victory and far-right success at European elections could, if both occurred, “spell the end of European strategic ambitions”.
The problem for Macron is that unlike Draghi, France lacks the means to do “whatever it takes” to protect Ukraine. It has a mid-sized army and is the only nuclear-armed country in the EU. But its tight public finances give it little firepower to invest in defence unless it cuts spending elsewhere.
Other allies quickly distanced themselves from Macron’s troops-to-Ukraine idea. Germany said there was no chance it would send its forces. Critics will say the French president’s method has once again undermined his message.
Macron also lacks consistency. For months, France has blocked the use of EU funds to buy artillery ammunition for Ukraine from outside the bloc on the basis that such spending does nothing to boost Europe’s own defence industry. Only on Monday did Macron back a Czech plan that would also buy from outside the EU.
France has also faced criticism for providing Ukraine with less weaponry than other western allies, such as Germany, the Nordics and the UK, according to numbers compiled by the Kiel institute tracker. Its promised military aid to Ukraine this year is less than half that of Germany’s.
Macron said not ruling out sending western troops into Ukraine was aimed at re-establishing “strategic ambiguity” to make Russia reconsider its assumption that western support will falter.
Yet the episode may have put the spotlight on something more worrisome — allies are divided on just how far they are willing to go to help Ukraine.